A new poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab finds Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis holding a narrow lead over Congressman Byron Donalds in the 2026 GOP gubernatorial primary — but only in the broad electorate.
Among 797 registered Republican voters, DeSantis polls at 32% compared to Donalds at 29%. Matt Gaetz draws 8%, Francis Suarez 2%, and Wilton Simpson 1%, with 18% still undecided.
But the numbers shift sharply in Donalds’ favor when narrowed to Republicans who voted in the last primary:
PONTE VEDRA BEACH”S SUSIE WILES ON DESANTIS SPLIT
“It’s important to note that among folks who voted in the last primary, Donalds is 15 points ahead of DeSantis, and it’s likely those same folks will be the ones voting next August, so this race might not actually be as close as it appears,” said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF PORL faculty director and professor of political science.
That’s a market turnaround from last year, when DeSantis held the advantage by a margin of 22% to 9%.
Donalds, an FSU grad originally from Crown Heights, Brooklyn, has benefitted from a staunch endorsement from President Donald Trump.
Casey DeSantis has yet to announce a campaign.
Her prospects have clouded in recent months amid a controversy over Hope Florida, a charitable initiative she leads.
The program’s affiliated nonprofit is under scrutiny for allegedly routing monies from a Medicaid settlemennt to political activity aimed at defeating a marijuana legalization measure.
But the imbroglio’s impact remains unclear, as 63% of GOP voters say they’ve never heard of Hope Florida and a negligible 6% view it negatively.
The poll also found that 63% of Florida Republicans support eliminating property taxes for homeowners, while 58% oppose legalizing recreational marijuana.
The survey was conducted July 14–22, with a margin of error of ±3.9%.
